Win total predictions: Our reporters make over/under picks for all 32 NFL teams
May 13, 2022
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NFL NationESPN
Even though the 2022 NFL season is roughly four months from kicking off, it’s never too early to speculate about win totals — or to gamble on them. Caesars Sportsbook has released the initial projected win totals of each team for the upcoming season. There’s a lot that will still happen between now and then, but NFL over/unders are open for wagering, so we asked our 32 NFL Nation writers to handicap the win totals of the teams they cover based on the initial Caesars numbers listed below. There is a lot of optimism among our reporters about the fortunes and prospects of the teams they cover. However, there is also a bit of pessimism and the occasional pragmatic push. NFL Nation provides early advice to eager bettors, whether it’s optimism about winning again, giddy about offseason additions, or waiting and seeing how things turn out.
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ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Over/under: 11.5
Prediction: Buffalo won 11 games last year but should have won even more. The 2022 Bills should win more than 11. This roster is better than in 2021, thanks to the additions made throughout the offseason, most notably Von Miller. The AFC East improved around the Bills and the schedule has tough games in every portion, but this roster should win at least 12 games. — Alaina Getzenberg
Miami Dolphins
Over/under: 8.5
Prediction: On paper, there are seven games that Miami should win if it considers itself a playoff contender. If Miami can win those seven games and draws out a few swing games, it should be able to clear 8.5. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
New England Patriots
Over/under: 8.5
Prediction: Bill Belichick’s team needs a few things to happen to hit the over, starting with quarterback Mac Jones making the often-discussed second-year jump.
New York Jets — Mike Reiss
New York Jets
Over/under: 5.5
Prediction: The Jets’ over/under is greater than their average win total over the past six seasons (4.5). They should win at least six games. Shame on them. It feels like it has been years since they rebuilt. The Jets have made significant improvements to their personnel, on both sides of ball, to the point that they should be playing meaningful December games. The difference between 6-11 and, say, 9-8, will be Zach Wilson and his development. — Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Baltimore will hit the over as long as Lamar Jackson remains healthy, which was a major issue last year. Since Jackson took over as the starter midway through the 2018 season, his winning percentage (. 755, 37-12 record) ranks only behind that of Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore is 2-5 without Jackson (. 286) over the past three seasons. — Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Last season, the Bengals exceeded expectations with a 10-win season. Cincinnati needs another strong defense and a strong offense to reach double digits. — Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Whether Cleveland can top the current over/under will hinge heavily on whether new quarterback Deshaun Watson is suspended under the league’s code of conduct policy. If Watson isn’t suspended, the Browns have the talent to easily reach 10 victories against this schedule. — Jake Trotter
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/under: 7.5
Prediction: For the Steelers to hit the over, they’ll need the quarterback situation to be settled — and quickly. Whether that’s Kenny Pickett starting from the beginning and deftly adjusting to the NFL learning curve or Mitch Trubisky commanding Matt Canada’s offense, whoever takes over the starting job will have to hit the ground running, literally. — Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Over/under: 4.5
Prediction: Taking the over requires some faith in an improved offense behind quarterback Davis Mills, but even with a schedule that includes the tough AFC West, I’ll take the over in Houston. — Sarah Barshop
Indianapolis Colts
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: The Colts can’t rely as much on running back Jonathan Taylor like they did last season if they expect to meet or surpass that total. The young receivers, led by Michael Pittman Jr., will have to step up and help Taylor and new starting quarterback Matt Ryan if the Colts expect to go toe-to-toe with their schedule. — Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under: 6.5
Prediction: Just having Doug Pederson leading the ship instead of Urban Meyer will make a huge difference, but to hit the over, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has to make major strides in his second season. That doesn’t seem unreasonable, considering he’s not dealing with the dysfunction that infested the franchise under Meyer, the fact that Pederson has given him three assistants who were former college or pro quarterbacks, and the team added receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram in free agency. — Michael DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Tennessee has won nine or more games in each of its three seasons with Mike Vrabel as coach. The schedule for this year includes clashes with the AFC West, as well as a visit to Buffalo to face off against the Bills. Although it’s no walk in the park, the Titans should be able to salvage 10 wins. — Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Over/under number: 10
Prediction: To hit that over/under of 10, the Broncos will likely have to break the losing streak to the Chiefs, win most, or all, of their home games and be in a position to break a six-year playoff drought. — Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/under: 10.5
Prediction: The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in each of the past four seasons. They have not faced a schedule as tough as this one, even though they have been able to win at least 
If they can survive the opening six games, the Chiefs will be able to hit the over. This includes matches with the Bills (Bills) and Bucs (Bills). — Adam Teicher
Las Vegas Raiders
Over/under: 8.5
Prediction: That over/under of 8.5 seems insulting, given the Raiders are coming off a 10-win playoff season, improved across the roster and joined the 21st century with an elite playcaller in new coach Josh McDaniels. That’s on paper, though, and the offensive line still has to protect quarterback Derek Carr, who will need time to deliver the ball downfield to college bestie Davante Adams. — Paul Gutierrez
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/under: 10
Prediction: On paper, 10 wins should be doable, but fall into an 0-2 hole against a pair of AFC West foes and that climb back will be steep indeed. If they win both games, it should be easy going from here on out. — Paul Gutierrez
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Over/under: 10.5
Prediction: A year ago, the Cowboys won 12 games, but they don’t have Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, Connor Williams or La’el Collins around this year. They haven’t made the big free-agent splashes. They didn’t generate much buzz with their draft. So why 10.5? Based on last year’s win percentages, they are tied with Washington as the easiest schedule. — Todd Archer
New York Giants
Over/under: 7
Prediction: Seven wins seems ambitious. This would be a three-win improvement from last season’s 4-13 finish. Is there a chance Jones will stay healthy? (He hasn’t in three seasons). Would a new coaching staff be enough to bring the four wins required to reach the over? — Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/under: 9
Prediction: Considering the strength of schedule based off last year’s win percentages and the fact they won nine games last season, the over/under of 9 might be a little low. A.J. was traded. Brown should help quarterback Jalen Hurts in his second full season as the starting quarterback. — Todd Archer
Washington Commanders
Over/under: 7.5
Prediction: That over/under would mean just a half-win better than 2021 when injuries and COVID-19 derailed Washington’s season. The Commanders have made significant improvements at quarterback and should have a better offense overall. They don’t have the same quality of quarterbacks as last season. — John Keim
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Over/under: 6.5
Prediction: The NFC North is more open than in years past, but Chicago isn’t a team currently built to contend for the playoffs, let alone a division title. The Bears will play 13 straight games before they get a week off late in the season. If they want to hit the over, they might have to rely on their defense to carry the load with some early wins as Justin Fields builds chemistry with his new teammates during the early portion of the schedule. — Courtney Cronin
Detroit Lions
Over/under: 6
Prediction: To hit the over, quarterback Jared Goff has to show that he can be productive with anyone other than Sean McVay as his coach. Goff is 3-17-1 (. 167) with a QBR of 33 in his career without McVay. It’s not his fault. Lions general manager Brad Holmes is putting offensive weapons around him in 2022, and Goff has a familiarity with receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, running back D’Andre Swift and tight end T.J. Hockenson. Plus, the Lions added receivers DJ Chark and Jameson Williams via free agency and the draft, respectively. The rebuilt defense must also be improved. — Eric Woodyard
Green Bay Packers
Over/under: 11
Prediction: The oddmakers must not think coach Matt LaFleur can put together a fourth straight 13-win season. In his three previous seasons as their coach, LaFleur has accomplished this feat in all three. If they can make up for the loss of All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, then they could go over again. They were 7-0 without Adams in the last three seasons. — Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
Over/under: 9
Prediction: Take the over. The Vikings have a higher floor than many teams who hire a coach. It’s talented, with an average of nine wins per season over the last nine seasons. With a fresh coat of paint on the offense and defense, and a weakened NFC overall, this team should win at least 10 games. — Kevin Seifert
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Over/under: 5.5
Prediction: Oddsmakers aren’t high on the Falcons, and that’s with good reason based on the roster as currently constructed. Atlanta Falcons
— Michael Rothstein
Carolina Panthers
Over/under: 6
Prediction: The over/under of 6 is one more win than the team has had in each of the past three seasons. Carolina hasn’t had a winning season since going 11-5 in 2017, which coincides with the last time the team had consistent quarterback play. To surpass six wins, consistent play from Sam Darnold, or whoever is at quarterback, is a must. — David Newton
New Orleans Saints
Over/under: 7.5
Prediction: The oddsmakers are skeptical the Saints can overcome the loss of coach Sean Payton. The win total of 7.5 is too low, considering they went 9-8 last year despite setting an NFL record with 58 starters used. Getting quarterback Jameis Winston and star wideout Michael Thomas back healthy and adding first-round pick Chris Olave will revive the offense. — Mike Triplett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under: 11.5
Prediction: They managed to go 13-4 last season despite their receiving corps being decimated by injuries in the last quarter of the season. But that was against a 29th-ranked schedule, according to FPI, with opponents finishing a combined 126-145 the year before. This season, the Bucs’ opponents finished a combined 154-134-1 in 2021. — Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Over/under number: 9
Prediction: They’ll need to have a strong start without DeAndre Hopkins to reach that number. They have a history of late-season collapses and a difficult season. To reach nine wins, they will need to have a strong start without DeAndre Hopkins. — Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
Over/under number: 10.5
Prediction: I’ll take the over. Yes, the Rams have the toughest strength of schedule in 2022, but they had the second-toughest schedule last season and still won 12 games. — Sarah Barshop
San Francisco 49ers
Over/under number: 10
Prediction: That’s the number of games the Niners won last season before making a deep postseason run and feels about right for a roster that remains mostly intact. But there’s a lot more possible variance with this group because of the expected ascendance of Trey Lance to the starting quarterback job. — Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks
Over/under number: 6
Prediction: I’m taking the over, but barely. This might seem optimistic for a team that has a quarterback question mark, but it’s not. There are enough talent on the roster and enough weak-looking competitors with uncertain QB situations to win seven games. One notable upset will be required. — Brady Henderson
The author of 5 books, 3 of which are New York Times bestsellers. I’ve been published in more than 100 newspapers and magazines and am a frequent commentator on NPR.
