What to know: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats

What to know: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats

Nov 11, 2022

  • espn generic m

    ESPN staff

The Week 10 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 10 slate, including Stefon Diggs‘ first game against the Vikings since being traded, a big Cowboys-Packers matchup and a trip to Germany for Tom Brady. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Commanders and the Eagles on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
SEA-TB | CLE-MIA | MIN-BUF
NO-PIT | DET-CHI | DEN-TEN
JAX-KC | HOU-NYG | IND-LV
DAL-GB | ARI-LAR | LAC-SF
WSH-PHI

Thursday: CAR 25, ATL 15
Bye: CIN, NE, NYJ, BAL

end rule

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Seahawks (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-5) — Germany

9: 30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: TB -2.5 (44.5)

What to watch for: The Bucs just snapped a three-game losing streak by defeating the Rams 16-13 in prime time while the Seahawks are on a four-game win streak and holding onto first place in the NFC West. The Bucs won’t go very far in what could be Tom Brady‘s last season if they can’t put up more points, but the Seahawks have given up the fourth-most touchdown passes on the road this season. — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Jordyn Brooks will notch his first career interception. The Seahawks aren’t a blitz-heavy defense to begin with, and because Brady is getting the ball out of his hands faster than any other quarterback this season (an NFL-low 2.40 seconds on average), their game plan will focus more on coverage than pressure. Brooks will be the beneficiary, picking off Brady to send the Seahawks to a win and a 7-3 record heading into their bye. — Brady Henderson

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Stephen A. Smith explains why Geno Smith and the Seahawks will beat the Buccaneers.

Stat to know: The Buccaneers are averaging 18 points per game, the fewest points by a Brady-led offense through nine games in his career. The fewest points per game for a Brady team through 10 games is 19.6 in 2003 — the Bucs would need to score 35 points on Sunday to best that mark.

Injuries: Seahawks | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: Tyler Lockett is known for his boom-and-bust production, but the Geno Smith experience has seemingly cured that. He has scored more than 13 points in six games this season. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Tampa Bay can clinch the under on its season win total (11.5) with a loss. Seattle can clinch the over on its season win total (6) with a win. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Seahawks 20
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 83.1% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: NFL players, coaches with most to gain or lose in 2022Brady hits 100K passing yards, leads Bucs to last-minute winIrvin’s NFL career: Five teams, Super Bowl ejection, more


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Browns (3-5) at Dolphins (6-3)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: MIA -3.5 (48.5)

What to watch for: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill topped the 1,000-yard mark last week, and teammate Jaylen Waddle is 188 yards away from doing the same. His career high is 171 yards, but surpassing that won’t be easy against a Browns defense that’s allowed only three 100-yard receivers all season, none since Week 5. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction: Nick Chubb will pile up a season-high rushing total on the ground against the league’s 15th-ranked run defense as the Browns attempt to keep up with Miami’s high-flying offense. Chubb, whose season high (141 yards) came in the opener, is fresh following Cleveland’s bye — and his dominant offensive line should be healthy, too. — Jake Trotter

Stat to know: Hill and Waddle rank first and fifth, respectively, in receiving yards this season and have 1,916 combined receiving yards this season. The Browns have allowed 11.96 yards per reception — tied for the fourth most in the NFL.

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Stephania Bell is holding on to Raheem Mostert despite being outsnapped by Jeff Wilson Jr. in his Dolphins debut.

Injuries: Browns | Dolphins

What to know for fantasy: In Dolphins wins this season, Waddle is averaging 22.6 fantasy points (103.5 receiving yards) per game. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Cleveland games are 5-2-1 to the over, the highest over percentage in the league. All four Miami home games this season have gone under the total. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Dolphins 27, Browns 17
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 30, Browns 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 60.5% (by an average of 3.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Browns CB Ward says he’ll return vs. DolphinsDolphins coach asked Bears QB Fields to stop runningGM: Watson on track to start Dec. 4Dolphins winning shootouts with Tagovailoa and Hill, but is it sustainable?


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Vikings (7-1) at Bills (6-2)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: BUF -3.5 (43.5)

What to watch for: The Bills have won seven straight home games dating back to last season, all by double digits, but that streak will be on the line in a big way with the Vikings coming to town as winners of six straight one-score games. While the Bills will be hoping to bounce back after a tough loss to the Jets, they might be without Josh Allen (right elbow), who has not missed a game since 2018 and accounts for a league-high 82% of the Bills’ yardage and 92% of their touchdowns. Backup Case Keenum has experience with Stefon Diggs from 2017 in Minnesota, including the “Minneapolis Miracle.” — Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: Justin Jefferson and Diggs will combine for more than 300 receiving yards. Diggs, who has two 100-yard performances in his past three games, will be fired up to play against his original team. Jefferson is on a big roll, having racked up four 100-yard games in his past five. (He reached 98 yards the other time.) Be ready for a big display of receiving firepower. — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Allen has thrown two interceptions in each of his past two games. The Vikings have forced 14 opponent turnovers this season, and have intercepted a pass in three straight games, with five total interceptions over those three games.

Injuries: Vikings | Bills

What to know for fantasy: The Bills’ offense is fantasy friendly, yet Devin Singletary hasn’t found the painted area in five straight games (0 rush TDs on 79 carries this season). See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Buffalo lost last week as a 10.5-point favorite against the Jets. Teams coming off a loss as a double-digit favorite are 46-28-2 against the spread (ATS) in the following game over the past 20 seasons. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Vikings 24
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Bills 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 79.9% (by an average of 9.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Hockenson learned the Vikings’ offense in four daysHow trading Diggs became a massive win-win for Bills, Vikings


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Saints (3-6) at Steelers (2-6)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: NO -2 (40)

What to watch for: After a Week 9 bye, the Steelers enter the back half of the season rested and with defensive reinforcements on the way. Outside linebacker T.J. Watt and safety Damontae Kazee are expected to be activated off injured reserve, but the team could be without defensive end Larry Ogunjobi. Though the Steelers had a rocky 2-6 start to the season, Mike Tomlin is 11-4 after the bye, including five consecutive wins since 2017. — Brooke Pryor

Bold prediction: The Saints will bounce back despite a short week on the road, but they’ll do it with a patchwork offensive line (Andrus Peat and Erik McCoy are hurt) and without starting linebacker Pete Werner. That’s because the Saints won’t be facing a running quarterback and can take advantage of rookie Kenny Pickett, who has been sacked eight times (with four interceptions) in the past two games. The Saints’ defense will get at least three sacks and look more like the defense that shut the Raiders out vs. the defense that showed up against the Ravens. — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: Chris Olave leads all NFL rookies with 618 receiving yards this season. He could become the third Saints rookie with 1,000-plus receiving yards (Michael Thomas with 1,137 in 2016, Marques Colston with 1,038 in 2006).

Injuries: Saints | Steelers

What to know for fantasy: Najee Harris averaged 70.6 rush yards and 17.7 fantasy points per game last season. This season, he has one game with 70 rushing yards and has yet to clear 14 fantasy points in a game. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as a home underdog (13-7 outright), including 7-0-2 ATS over the past five seasons (7-2 outright). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Steelers 24, Saints 23
Walder’s pick: Saints 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: NO, 61.9% (by an average of 3.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Kamara hearing in battery case continued againWatt ‘optimistic’ about Sunday return for needy Steelers defense


detchi

Lions (2-6) at Bears (3-6)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: CHI -3 (48.5)

What to watch for: Justin Fields set the single-game regular-season rushing record for quarterbacks with 178 yards on 14 attempts in Week 9. Fields leads all quarterbacks with 42 scrambles for 411 yards, and the Bears host a Lions defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs. The Lions are coming off a 15-9 win over division rival Green Bay and have not won consecutive games since the 2020 season. Chicago is looking for its first win over an NFC North opponent after losing to the Packers and Vikings earlier this season. — Courtney Cronin

Bold prediction: Brothers Amon-Ra and Equanimeous St. Brown will both score a touchdown in the same game. The siblings have been talking trash all week about the matchup in the midst of their video game sessions. They could become the third siblings in league history to accomplish this feat during the Super Bowl era, and their father, John Brown, prepared them for this moment. It’ll be their third time facing each other as NFL opponents. — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Lions are allowing 5.0 yards per rush, ranking 28th in the NFL. They face a Bears attack that averages 5.4 yards per rush, second in the NFL.

Injuries: Lions | Bears

What to know for fantasy: Fields has not thrown for 200 yards in any of his past four games, but on the back of more than eight fantasy points with his legs in each of those games, he has finished each of those weeks as a top-seven fantasy QB. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Unders in division games are 29-13-1 this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bears 34, Lions 28
Walder’s pick: Bears 19, Lions 14
FPI prediction: CHI, 59.2% (by an average of 2.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: ‘Trash talk and bragging rights’: St. Brown brothers face off for third timeFields sets regular-season rushing mark for QBLions came together after tumultuous weekDolphins coach asked Bears QB Justin Fields to stop running


denten

Broncos (3-5) at Titans (5-3)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: TEN -3 (38)

What to watch for: The Titans’ wide receivers didn’t catch a single pass last week and averaged 1.53 yards of separation, the worst by any team this season. This week Tennessee is facing Pat Surtain II, one of the top cover corners in the NFL. Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing has taken it upon himself to put the wideouts in a better position to get open. “There are things we can do to help out. We’re always looking for ways to try to scheme those guys up,” he said. — Turron Davenport

Bold prediction: Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich, in just the fourth game of his career, will top the 87 yards receiving he had against the Jaguars in London and will score his second touchdown of the season. Dulcich is a tough matchup in coverage, and the Titans have surrendered five touchdowns this season to tight ends, fullbacks or running backs. That also means Denver’s new arrival, running back Chase Edmonds, will have some impact in the passing game. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: The Broncos have the top-ranked passing defense, holding opponents to 165.8 passing yards per game, and have allowed only four passing touchdowns. The Titans have failed to throw a passing touchdown in three consecutive games.

Injuries: Broncos | Titans

What to know for fantasy: Derrick Henry‘s volume is never a question and The King has a 20-plus-yard touch in six straight games … it doesn’t seem to matter who is under center. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Tennessee is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Titans 23, Broncos 17
Walder’s pick: Broncos 23, Titans 9
FPI prediction: TEN, 60.8% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Wilson: Won a lot in Seattle without wristband‘I hope someone gets open soon’: Titans have league-worst separation rate in Chiefs lossWriting might have been on the wall for Chubb trade


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Jaguars (3-6) at Chiefs (6-2)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -9.5 (50.5)

What to watch for: The Chiefs are facing their fifth opponent currently ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense in the Jaguars, who are allowing 19.8 points per game. Their results have been mixed. They are 3-1 with two games of 40-plus points and two of exactly 20. But the Jaguars have faced just one of the league’s top 10 scoring teams and no opponent quite like the Chiefs, who lead the NFL in scoring at 30.4 points per game and are second in yards at 415. — Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Patrick Mahomes will top 350 yards passing. The Jaguars are rotating rookie Montaric Brown and veteran Tre Herndon at the corner spot opposite Tyson Campbell, so expect the Chiefs to target that spot often Sunday. This is the same defense that gave up 146 yards and two TDs receiving to Davante Adams in the first half last week, and while Tyreek Hill is gone, the Chiefs are still explosive offensively (JuJu Smith-Schuster has 17 catches the past two games and Travis Kelce is sixth in the NFL with 57 catches). — Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: Travis Etienne Jr. has run for 100 yards and one touchdown in three straight games, and his 435 rushing yards before first contact is ranked third most in the NFL. The Chiefs have a 25.8% run stop win rate this season, the worst in the NFL, per ESPN metrics and NFL Next Gen Stats. They have allowed 5.3 yards per rush in the past four games.

Injuries: Jaguars | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: Since Week 6, only five receivers have scored more fantasy points than Smith-Schuster. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Kansas City is 0-4 ATS at home this season. Mahomes is 15-19 ATS in his career at home, including 3-8 ATS in his past 11 home games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 21
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 28, Jaguars 24
FPI prediction: KC, 84.2% (by an average of 12.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jags QB Lawrence bounces back, but can his productive play continue against the Chiefs?Mahomes is the comeback king of the NFLHave the Chiefs ever relied more on Mahomes?


hounyg

Texans (1-6) at Giants (6-2)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: NYG -4.5 (41)

What to watch for: The Texans have the league’s worst run defense (180.6 yards per game) by a wide margin. That’s not ideal when facing Saquon Barkley and the Giants. New York has the NFL’s fifth-ranked rushing attack (161.5 ypg) and Barkley has at least 70 yards on the ground in seven of eight games. He’s also fresh and healthier off the bye week. — Jordan Raanan

Bold prediction: The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL (1,445), and they’re facing the third-leading rusher in the NFL in Barkley (779). But the Texans will finally figure out their run woes and hold him under 100 yards. — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: The Giants have a plus-31 scoring margin in the second half of games this season — ranking fourth in the NFL — however, their minus-25 scoring margin in the first half ranks 24th.

Injuries: Texans | Giants

What to know for fantasy: Volume holds value and Dameon Pierce has at least 20 carries or three-plus catches in six straight games. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: New York is 6-2 ATS, tied for the best mark in the league. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Giants 23, Texans 13
Walder’s pick: Giants 27, Texans 16
FPI prediction: NYG, 67.4% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Texans WR Brandin Cooks admits to frustration: Want to winGiants roster: Midseason strengths and weaknesses‘Things don’t happen overnight’: Texans trying to fix NFL’s worst rush defense with Giants up nextGiants’ McKinney unsure he’ll return in ’22 after ‘freak accident’


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Colts (3-5) at Raiders (2-6)

4: 05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LV -4.5 (41)

What to watch for: New Colts coach Jeff Saturday will be the big headline, since he has never coached a football game above the high school level. But eyes will also be on the edge rush. The Raiders essentially swapped out Yannick Ngakoue for Chandler Jones in the offseason. While Indianapolis has gotten a decent return on Ngakoue, who was traded by Las Vegas for Rock Ya-Sin and has 4.5 sacks for the Colts, Las Vegas is still waiting for Jones — who signed a three-year, $51 million free-agent deal and has just 0.5 sacks — to break out. — Paul Gutierrez

Bold prediction: Between the Colts’ colossal offensive struggles (league-worst 14.7 points per game) and staff upheaval (assistant Parks Frazier will call plays for the first time in his career), and the Raiders’ personnel losses (Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to injured reserve), this feels like a game in which the winner will score 17 points or fewer. The Colts have scored 10, 16 and 3 points in their past three games. — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: The Colts are the only team this season to rank in the bottom five in pass rush win rate (36.2%, ranked 29th) and pass block win rate (49.7%, 30th), according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats.

Injuries: Colts | Raiders

What to know for fantasy: Davante Adams opened last week with the most first-quarter catches by a Raider since Jerry Rice (2002), not bad for a player who was held to 3 yards the week prior in New Orleans. Yes, he’s just fine. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Overs are 14-5-1 at Allegiant Stadium since it opened in 2020. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Raiders 27, Colts 20
Walder’s pick: Raiders 34, Colts 12
FPI prediction: LV, 86.0% (by an average of 12.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jeff Saturday impresses Colts players: ‘I care’ about themRaiders to put Waller on IR, source saysWhy the Colts fired Frank Reich, and what’s nextRaiders waive former first-rounder Abram


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Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (3-6)

4: 25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DAL -4.5 (43)

What to watch for: If Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers’ offense struggled against the Lions’ shaky defense, what are the Cowboys going to do to them, especially considering all the uncertainty about the status of their two best offensive linemen, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins? Dallas ranks first in sacks per dropback, pass rush win rate and pressure percentage. — Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: CeeDee Lamb will have more than 100 yards receiving. The Cowboys have not had a 100-yard game from a wide receiver through the first eight games of the season, which is the first time since 1973 that’s occurred. Lamb came close with 97 yards vs. Washington earlier in the season and had three other games with at least 75 yards. The Packers have allowed two receivers (Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs) to have more than 100 yards through the air this season. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Rodgers has thrown seven interceptions this season, already his most in a season since 2016. The Cowboys have sacked the opposing QB at least four times in four straight games.

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Stephen A. Smith blames Aaron Rodgers for not living up to his usual level of greatness this season.

Injuries: Cowboys | Packers

What to know for fantasy: Over the past 11 months, wide receiver Allen Lazard has scored in nine of 12 games. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Dallas is 6-2 ATS, tied for the best mark in the league Read more.

Moody’s pick: Cowboys 21, Packers 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 24, Packers 19
FPI prediction: DAL, 64.2% (by an average of 4.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cowboys coach McCarthy is a Pittsburgh guy, but Green Bay remains ‘a special place’Why Rodgers’ contract limits Packers’ options and what could come next‘November is a huge month’: Cowboys exit bye with three games in 12 daysPackers’ Rodgers: Appreciation for Mike McCarthy has grownCowboys’ Mike McCarthy tries to downplay return to Lambeau Field


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Cardinals (3-6) at Rams (3-5)

4: 25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: LAR -1.5 (43.5)

What to watch for: The Rams have dominated the Cardinals since Sean McVay was hired as head coach, going 10-1 against Arizona in the regular season. That’s the second-best record in the Super Bowl era by a head coach with at least 10 games played against a divisional opponent. — Sarah Barshop

Bold prediction: With all of the Cardinals’ issues on the offensive line — their entire interior is out — Aaron Donald will have a field day and will sack Kyler Murray four times. Murray will have to run for his life, which will lead to 75 rushing yards. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: The Rams have been outscored by 61 points in the fourth quarter this season (the most in the NFL), and their eight turnovers in the fourth quarter also lead the league.

Injuries: Cardinals | Rams

What to know for fantasy: If you were to project DeAndre Hopkins‘ three games this season for 16 games, we are talking 139 catches for 1,589 yards and 11 TDs. He’s averaging a career best 22.6 fantasy points per game and hasn’t missed a beat. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Los Angeles has gone under the total in five of its past six games. Arizona has gone over the total in three straight games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Cardinals 24, Rams 13
Walder’s pick: Rams 22, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 56.9% (by an average of 2.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals-Rams week a dicey family situation for JeffersonsThree things the Rams’ offense needs to fixStafford placed in concussion protocol


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Chargers (5-3) at 49ers (4-4)

8: 20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: SF -7 (45.5)

What to watch for: The Chargers enter this game giving up a league-worst 5.71 yards per rush and just lost Austin Johnson, the team’s best run-stopping defensive lineman, to a season-ending knee injury. The Niners’ run game was inconsistent in the first eight weeks, but with Christian McCaffrey in the fold, it looks to be on the uptick. And the Niners are expected to get some other key players such as running back Elijah Mitchell back from injury this week, which means if the Chargers are going to win this one, they’re going to have to find answers to fix that woeful run defense in a hurry. — Nick Wagoner

Bold prediction: McCaffrey will accumulate 200 all-purpose yards, including 150 rushing yards. The Chargers have struggled to stop the run, which includes giving up explosive plays on the ground. Although it’s a point of emphasis for improvement, that will be difficult with Johnson — their best run-stopper — on injured reserve. The only thing that could prevent McCaffrey from going wild is the return of teammate Deebo Samuel, who will take away some of McCaffrey’s touches. — Lindsey Thiry

Stat to know: Austin Ekeler and McCaffrey rank Nos. 1-2 in games with at least one rushing TD and one receiving TD over the past five seasons.

Injuries: Chargers | 49ers

What to know for fantasy: Ekeler had a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown last week, the fourth time he has done so over his past five games. Here is the full list of players who have had four such games in a season multiple times in their career: Austin Ekeler. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: “Sunday Night Football” unders are 7-2 this season and 36-23-2 over the past four seasons. Prime-time unders are 17-10-1 this season and 65-45-2 over the last four seasons. Read more.

Moody’s pick: 49ers 28, Chargers 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Chargers 23
FPI prediction: SF, 75.3% (by an average of 7.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: DT Johnson latest Bolt lost for season‘Mooney’ has been money: Ward providing 49ers big-time corner playNFL flexes Chargers-Chiefs Week 11 game to SNFInside the Ravens-49ers 2013 New Orleans Super Bowl blackout


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Commanders (4-5) at Eagles (8-0)

Monday, 8: 15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: PHI -11 (44)

What to watch for: Jalen Hurts carved the Commanders up with the deep ball in their Week 3 matchup in Washington, completing five passes of 20-plus yards en route to a 24-8 win. His 340 passing yards in that game represent a season high. The Commanders need to pay extra attention to tight end Dallas Goedert, who has 14 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. — Tim McManus

Bold prediction: Washington’s defense will hold the Eagles to their second-lowest yardage total and second-lowest point total of the season. The Eagles’ fewest points scored is 20, and their lowest yardage total 268. Washington has defended the Eagles’ run game as well as anyone, holding them to their lowest total this season (72 at 2.40 per carry) in Week 3. The key will be slowing the passing game; DeVonta Smith burned them for 169 yards and a touchdown. In the ensuing five games, he’s had only 193. If Washington can limit A.J. Brown, it can threaten the upset. — John Keim

Stat to know: The Eagles haven’t trailed in the second half this season, and they are the first team to win the turnover battle in each of their first eight games since the 1972 Steelers.

Injuries: Commanders | Eagles

What to know for fantasy: Hurts is cruising and has had no issues with Washington during his past three starts against them (all wins): eight total touchdowns, 850 pass yards and 102 rush yards. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Three straight Philadelphia games have gone over the total. Six of Washington’s past seven games have gone under the total. Unders are 4-0 when Washington plays teams with winning records this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Eagles 35, Commanders 20
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 10
FPI prediction: PHI, 83.5% (by an average of 11.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Heinicke’s starts have been ‘roller-coaster’ ride for CommandersBrown fined $10K for taunting SteelersRobinson agent scolds Commanders for AG retort

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