NHL playoff watch: Oilers-Avs a conference final preview?

8:00 AM ET

Tim KavanaghESPN.com
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With four days left of the 2022-23 NHL regular season, we know the identity of 13 out of 16 playoff teams. But quite a bit of specific seeding remains to be determined.

That process continues tonight via a 10-game schedule, highlighted by a doubleheader on ESPN.

In the first game, the past becomes the present to preview the future, as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning reprise their first-round clash from the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), a week before they’ll run it back in the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

In the late game, the Edmonton Oilers visit the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a preview of a possible Western Conference finals showdown.

How likely is that pairing? As of now, the Oilers will host the Los Angeles Kings in the Pacific Division 2 vs. 3 matchup, before taking on the winner of the Vegas Golden Knights‘ series against the second Western wild card (currently the Winnipeg Jets). The Avs are leading the Central, and would take on the first wild card Seattle Kraken before moving on to challenge the winner of the Dallas Stars–Minnesota Wild series.

As mentioned, much of this could change before the tournament begins on Monday, but Money Puck gives these two teams the highest chances of any Western clubs of making the conference finals: 40.5% for the Oilers and 39.1% for the Avs.

Today’s clinching scenarios

1. The Florida Panthers will clinch a playoff spot if the Buffalo Sabres lose to the New Jersey Devils in any fashion and the Pittsburgh Penguins lose to the Chicago Blackhawks in regulation.

2. The Winnipeg Jets will earn a playoff berth if they get at least one point against the Minnesota Wild.

3. The Carolina Hurricanes clinch the Metro Division title if they beat the Detroit Red Wings in any fashion and the Devils lose to the Sabres in regulation.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders

A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Florida Panthers

M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken

C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets

P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Tuesday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.

Monday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN for highlights from every game.

Dallas Stars 6, Detroit Red Wings 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 1 (OT)
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Washington Capitals 5, New York Islanders 2
Winnipeg Jets 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Minnesota Wild 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Nashville Predators 3, Calgary Flames 2 (SO)
Seattle Kraken 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Los Angeles Kings 3, Vancouver Canucks 0

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

p – Boston Bruins

Points: 131
Regulation wins: 52
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 134
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – Toronto Maple Leafs

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – Tampa Bay Lightning

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Florida Panthers

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 82%
Tragic number: N/A

Buffalo Sabres

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 4%
Tragic number: 2

e – Ottawa Senators

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Detroit Red Wings

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Montreal Canadiens

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 70
Next game: @ NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Metropolitan Division

x – Carolina Hurricanes

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – New Jersey Devils

Points: 108
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – New York Rangers

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

New York Islanders

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. MTL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 57%
Tragic number: N/A

Pittsburgh Penguins

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 57%
Tragic number: 3

e – Washington Capitals

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Philadelphia Flyers

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 58
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Central Division

x – Colorado Avalanche

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 3
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – Minnesota Wild

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Winnipeg Jets

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 95
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A

Nashville Predators

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6%
Tragic number: 1

e – St. Louis Blues

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Arizona Coyotes

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 70
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 57
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

x – Vegas Golden Knights

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – Edmonton Oilers

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 108
Next game: @ COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – Los Angeles Kings

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – Seattle Kraken

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

e – Calgary Flames

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. SJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Vancouver Canucks

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – San Jose Sharks

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Anaheim Ducks

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 60
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

1. Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15

2. Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17

3. Anaheim Ducks

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13

4. San Jose Sharks

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16

5. Montreal Canadiens

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21

6. Arizona Coyotes

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

10. Detroit Red Wings

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28

11. St. Louis Blues

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27

12. Ottawa Senators

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31

13. Buffalo Sabres

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29

14. Nashville Predators

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 29

15. Pittsburgh Penguins

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31

16. Calgary Flames

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30

Alejandro Noren

The author of 5 books, 3 of which are New York Times bestsellers. I’ve been published in more than 100 newspapers and magazines and am a frequent commentator on NPR.