Expert picks and betting tips
ESPN staffMay 17, 2023, 07:30 AM ET
The 2023 PGA Championship begins Wednesday from Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. World No. 1 Jon Rahm and World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler top the list of notable golfers who are primed to capture the Wanamaker Trophy at the end of this weekend. Scheffler enters the second major of the year on a hot streak, with a strong finish in the AT&T Byron Nelson and two victories (Phoenix Open and Players Championship).
Can Scheffler keep his torrid pace going or with the Rahm become the first man to win the first two major championships of a season since Jordan Spieth?
Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down everything thing you need to know to bet the 2023 PGA Championship.
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Experts’ picks to win | Betting value picks to win | Notable golfers odds | Props and more
Tory Barron, ESPN.com
Winner: Brooks Koepka: Remember the scene in “Billy Madison” when Adam Sandler’s character catches a dodgeball and tells the rest of the class, “now you’re all in big, big trouble?” That’s the energy I expect a healthy “Big-game Brooks” to carry into the PGA Championship — an event he has won twice before — fresh off his second-place finish in Augusta.
Elizabeth Baugh, ESPN.com
Winner: Rory McIlroy: There’s much talk about the toll the game has taken on McIlroy, but the fact is, he can’t be counted out. Oak Hill is a course he’s familiar with and it’s suited to his game (he’ll need that distance off the tee). The weather others are concerned about won’t be an issue for him.
Michael Collins, ESPN
Winner: Jon Rahm: Have we not seen this movie before? McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Koepka … all of them have gone through a stretch where they looked unbeatable. Rahm is in that mode right now. And winning the first two legs of the Grand Slam would light the fuse of the golf world.
Michael Eaves, ESPN
Winner: Tony Finau: In the shadows of Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, Finau has quietly put together a solid start to the season. And more importantly, he’s got the game and now the confidence to finally breakthrough for his first major championship.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell, ESPN.com
Winner: Tony Finau: He seems like the favorite for “first-time major winner” heading into Oak Hill. Has won twice on tour this year and finished in the top 25 in 11 of 14 events played. Plus, seeing him with his family on Sunday would be really cool.
Winner: Xander Schauffele: He’s playing well. Now is the time for his major win!
Winner: Xander Schauffele: Sooner or later, Schauffele is going to win a major, so why not this week? He tied for 10th at the Masters, his 16th top-25 finish in 23 starts in majors. He leads the tour in approach shots from 150 yards to 175 yards, which is going to be important at Oak Hill, and he’s in the top 10 in shots gained: approach to green (0.961), tee to green (1.510) and total (2.065). He finished in the top 10 in his past four starts in stroke-play events, including a runner-up at the Wells Fargo Championship, so he has plenty of momentum.
Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner: Scottie Scheffler: Short game will be a deciding factor in this tournament, and he’s No. 1 in world in strokes gained off the tee.
Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winner: Tony Finau: It’s finally time. Finau has always had the game and talent of a major winner, but he’s fallen short numerous times. He has shed the notion that he can’t win by claiming four PGA Tour events over the last two seasons. If it will happen anytime soon, the PGA Championship at Oak Hill feels like the place for it.
Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winner: Scottie Scheffler: It was shocking he missed the cut last year at a course he loves. He’s been playing well and can add a second major here at a venue that suits what he can do.
Winner: Rory McIlroy: His wife is from the Rochester area, and he’s a member at Oak Hill, and there is no greater motivation in the world than impressing your in-laws.
Betting value picks to win
Our betting experts give you picks to win based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who has the best chance to cash your ticket.
Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Scottie Scheffler ( 650)
Why he’ll win: Scheffler finished in the top 5 last week at the Byron Nelson and could have won if his flatstick performed better. He had a T-10 finish at the Masters and seven top 10s in 14 majors. Scheffler has nerves of steel on the big stage. He ranks first in Greens in Regulation , Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and par 4 scoring this season.
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Collin Morikawa (28-1)
Why he’ll win: The value on Morikawa is too great to pass up here. He’s a two-time major champion — including the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park. He often appears to play his best golf at the majors having six top-10 finishes in his last major starts. With Oak Hill being lengthened and the fairways still being tight, he has the type of length/accuracy combo that will be necessary to score well on this course.
Michael Collins, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Dustin Johnson (25-1)
Why he’ll win: I cannot for the life of me understand how Johnson is at 25-1. When DJ tells us he’s hitting it good, we should believe him.
Doug Kezirian, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Cameron Young (30-1)
Why he’ll win: Armed with a new caddie and length off the tee, Young could thrive at Oak Hill as long as his short game is decent. He has been solid over the past calendar year with three top-seven finishes in the past four majors. Hopefully this is when he breaks through.
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Sungjae Im (35-1)
Why he’ll win: If Collin Morikawa ranked 10th on tour in strokes gained: Total and entered the PGA Championship having produced six straight top-20 finishes and three straight top-8 finishes, you’d likely see him priced in the neighborhood of 22-1. But the resume I just gave you doesn’t belong to Morikawa, it belongs to Sungjae Im, who is priced at 35-1. This is what we call “value.”
Odds of winning the 2023 PGA Championship
Props and more
Our betting experts have more than just bets to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top 10s to made cuts to tournament matchups.
Tony Finau top-10 finish ( 210)
Marks: Finau is looking to win his first major, has four wins on tour since July, and just recently won in Mexico. He ranks in the top 15 in greens in regulation and is ranked 11th in the world. It is Tony Time this weekend.
Rory McIlroy top-10 finish ( 140)
Fulghum: What’s been going on with Rory? I don’t personally care. He’s too good and has too much of a track record at majors to not “buy the dip.” Oak Hill — which is long and has narrow fairways — should play perfectly into his strengths. I’m betting he shows up big this weekend and silences the murmuring critics.
Rickie Fowler top-5 finish (12-1)
Collins: Beware the allergy stricken golfer. Fowler has been outside the top 20 once in his past 7 starts.
The author of 5 books, 3 of which are New York Times bestsellers. I’ve been published in more than 100 newspapers and magazines and am a frequent commentator on NPR.